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Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to attract strong buying interest and continues to trade below the $4,100 level, as traders prefer to wait for further developments regarding the situation in the Middle East. Uncertainty surrounding potential peace negotiations between the United States and Iran continues to support the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, which in turn limits the upward potential for the precious metal.
In addition, the recovery in oil prices is fueling inflation concerns and increasing the likelihood of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, creating another headwind for gold.
On Monday, Iran denied reports of any negotiations with the United States, angering President Donald Trump, who had referred over the weekend to the resumption of bilateral talks as justification for calling off planned military strikes.
In addition, reports indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a drone attack on a U.S. military base in Kuwait. This has further reduced hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the five-month conflict and prompted traders to factor geopolitical risks into their outlook, reinforcing demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency.
Meanwhile, Mohsen Rezaee, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, rejected President Trump's claims that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open. He also warned that Iran would not allow unauthorized maritime traffic through this strategically important waterway and threatened attacks on U.S. naval vessels. Tensions have been further exacerbated by the maritime blockade imposed on Saudi Arabia by the Iran-backed Houthis, raising concerns over global energy supplies and helping oil prices recover part of their recent losses.
Investors remain concerned that rising oil prices could once again fuel inflationary pressures and force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish policy stance. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign a probability of more than 60% to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September and more than 85% to at least one rate increase by the end of the year. These expectations were reinforced by Monday's ISM Manufacturing PMI, which showed that U.S. manufacturing activity reached its highest level in four years in July, providing additional support for the U.S. dollar.
Nevertheless, traders may prefer to refrain from making aggressive bets ahead of Friday's key U.S. employment report, better known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. These data will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve monetary policy and are likely to have a significant impact on the short-term direction of the U.S. dollar, while potentially providing fresh momentum for gold prices. However, the current fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the downside.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains under pressure while attempting to break above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, the chances of a successful breakout remain limited, as momentum indicators continue to generate negative signals, confirming that sellers retain control of the market. The nearest resistance is located at the psychological $4,100 level, while immediate support is seen at $4,000. Overall, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
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