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The price test at 1.1518 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips.
Uninspiring U.S. data deprived the dollar of support yesterday, favoring the single currency. The labor market in June remained in equilibrium, with JOLTs data showing 7.4 million job openings. The lack of clear signs of cooling or overheating meant the Federal Reserve had no new arguments to change course, weakening the dollar. The industry introduced a mixed tone to the picture. New orders declined by 0.3% to $656.5 billion for the second consecutive month. This duality prevented the dollar from finding support, and the EUR/USD pair shifted toward growth.
Today, the euro enters the first half of the day with an eye on a busy block of European data, including the services sector business activity index, the composite PMI, and the Eurozone producer price report. Business activity indices are leading indicators, as they are among the first to capture shifts in business sentiment, and the market reacts primarily to deviations between the actual figures and forecasts. The producer price index will provide insight into inflation, showing how strong the cost increases are in the region's economy.
These releases are directly significant for the single currency. Confident business activity figures and rising producer prices will reinforce expectations for a more hawkish European Central Bank and provide the euro with support against the dollar. Conversely, disappointing data will leave the EUR/USD pair without sufficient reasons for continued upward movement, and the initiative will shift back to dollar sentiment. Until the reports are released, the euro will likely remain cautious, awaiting confirmation of economic resilience.
Regarding intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching a price in the area of 1.1542 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to 1.1565. At 1.1565, I intend to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be anticipated after positive data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1530 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1542 and 1.1565.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1530 (red line on the chart), with a target of 1.1509, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return today in the event of poor data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1542, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1530 and 1.1509.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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