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The test of the 157.87 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's further upward potential.
During the second half of the day, market participants will focus on a key batch of U.S. economic data, including the ISM Services PMI, the Composite PMI, the ADP Employment Change report, and remarks by FOMC member Lisa Cook. The ADP report provides an early indication of labor market conditions, while the PMI data reflect the pace of business activity. Both indicators influence expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy and U.S. Treasury yields. Lisa Cook's comments could further shape market sentiment. The Japanese yen may react to these releases, but only if the actual data deviate significantly from economists' forecasts. Stronger-than-expected reports could push USD/JPY above its weekly highs, allowing the pair to establish a new short-term uptrend—at least until the next potential currency intervention by the Japanese authorities. Conversely, weaker data would likely weigh on the U.S. dollar and renew demand for the yen.
As for my intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches the entry level around 157.87 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 158.22 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.22, I intend to close my long positions and open short positions, anticipating a 30–35 point pullback from that level. Any further gains in the pair today are likely to be relatively limited. Important: Before entering a long position, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the 157.67 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish market reversal. In this case, a move toward 157.87 and 158.22 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below the 157.67 level (the red line on the chart), which should trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The primary downward target for sellers will be 157.29, where I intend to close my short positions and immediately open long positions, anticipating a 20–25 point rebound from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if the Bank of Japan intervenes in the foreign exchange market. Important: Before entering a short position, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the 157.87 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish market reversal. In this case, a decline toward 157.67 and 157.29 can be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market ahead of major economic releases to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire trading capital very quickly, especially if you trade large position sizes without proper risk management.
Finally, remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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