Rimani 
Condizioni di trading
Strumenti
EUR/USD remains within the local bearish impulse that began on April 17, although with each passing day the bulls are moving closer to establishing a trend of their own. To achieve that, they need only invalidate Bearish Imbalance 17.
Let me reiterate a few important points. Imbalances tend to work best within the same impulse. If an imbalance forms during a bearish trend but is tested after the market has already shifted into a bullish trend, the resulting reaction may be weak or insignificant. The reaction to Imbalance 17 was indeed very limited, while GBP/USD, at the same time, responded to a bullish imbalance and may continue its advance, which currently looks much more convincing than the euro's price action. It is also worth remembering the two recent buy-side liquidity sweeps.
The fundamental backdrop is not currently in the bears' favor either. Last week, traders expected Kevin Warsh to deliver either a clear indication of a September rate hike or, at the very least, sufficiently hawkish rhetoric that would answer the question: Is the Federal Reserve preparing to tighten monetary policy this autumn? Instead, Warsh referred to incoming economic data, and, as we all know, the latest U.S. labor market figures have been relatively weak. Consequently, by September Warsh may conclude that the labor market remains too fragile for the Federal Reserve to focus solely on inflation.
Recent macroeconomic data have also supported the euro. U.S. GDP figures came in weaker than expected, while eurozone GDP data exceeded expectations. More broadly, the U.S. dollar currently appears to have exhausted most of its bullish drivers.
It is worth remembering that expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening are still only expectations, and they can change rapidly in response to geopolitical developments or incoming economic data. The latest U.S. labor market report was weak, while the inflation report showed a slowdown in price growth. Together, these developments cast doubt on the likelihood of an FOMC rate hike in the foreseeable future. If Donald Trump's statements prove accurate and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, that would provide yet another reason for investors to sell the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, since demand for defensive currencies would diminish if the conflict is at least partially resolved.
Although geopolitical developments have become a secondary consideration for traders, they continue to affect the economic outlook. Tehran and Washington are still communicating through intermediaries—if the current process can even be described as negotiations. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, oil prices are likely to decline, easing inflationary pressures. In that scenario, the probability of further FOMC monetary tightening would decrease even more, while any additional tightening by the European Central Bank is unlikely to attract market attention, as investors effectively priced it out two months ago.
The current technical picture still points to the continuation of the bearish impulse that began on April 17. Bearish Imbalance 17 has already been tested, but the market reaction was weak. Therefore, this pattern could be invalidated as early as today or tomorrow. Last week also saw the formation of Bullish Imbalance 19, giving buyers reason for optimism. If Imbalance 17 is invalidated while Imbalance 19 remains untested, traders will need to wait for new bullish patterns before considering fresh long positions.
Wednesday's economic releases once again had only a limited impact on overall market sentiment, although they continued to support the bulls. The U.S. ADP Employment Change report came in significantly weaker than expected, showing only 44,000 new jobs in July versus forecasts of 70,000–90,000. Even so, the market is not rushing to draw firm conclusions about the condition of the U.S. labor market, while the ISM business activity indices are currently insufficient on their own to offset the broader negative sentiment surrounding the U.S. dollar.
The bulls still have numerous reasons to remain active in 2026, and even the conflict in the Middle East has done little to reduce them. From both a structural and long-term perspective, the policies introduced by Donald Trump—which contributed to the sharp decline in the U.S. dollar last year—have not fundamentally changed. At present, I see few meaningful factors supporting the U.S. dollar despite the FOMC's relatively hawkish stance. Nevertheless, sellers remain in control of the market for now, while no fresh bullish signals have yet emerged.
Eurozone
United States
On August 6, the economic calendar contains only two releases, both of which I consider to be of limited importance. Therefore, the impact of Thursday's economic data on market sentiment is likely to be minimal or absent altogether.
In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a new bullish trend. Although the fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears five months ago, the broader bullish trend cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete. Consequently, the bulls may continue their advance following the two recent buy-side liquidity sweeps below clearly defined swing lows.
A sell signal may have formed within Imbalance 17, but the market's reaction was too weak, making it likely that this pattern will soon be invalidated. Imbalance 19 still has the potential to generate a bullish signal, although the price is moving increasingly farther away from this pattern. Despite the euro's recent strong rally, there are currently no attractive technical locations for initiating new long positions. Traders should wait for fresh bullish patterns to develop before considering additional buying opportunities.
Le recensioni analitiche di InstaForex ti renderanno pienamente consapevole delle tendenze del mercato! Essendo un cliente InstaForex, ti viene fornito un gran numero di servizi gratuiti per il trading efficiente.
