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The price test at 1.3464 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 20 pips.
However, closer to the middle of the American session, a robust US labor market returned demand for the dollar and undermined the pound's position. Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 were 199,000, having increased by only 1,000 from the revised level and remaining at a low level. Against this backdrop, the British pound became dependent on external forces and ceded ground to the dollar.
Today, the pound enters the first half of the day with a modest agenda, where the only item is the Lloyds house price index. This index shows how the value of residential property changes in the country and serves as an indicator of the sector's health, but its significance for the currency market is low. Traders rarely react to such releases, as they do not directly affect expectations regarding Bank of England policy, so notable responses in the British currency can be expected. Given such weak reports, the pound's dynamics will primarily be determined by external factors and US data.
Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily implement Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.3461 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3481 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3481, I plan to exit the market and sell the pound in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the pound can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3449 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the corresponding levels of 1.3461 and 1.3481.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after the price reaches 1.3449 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3434, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Bad news will return pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3461 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the corresponding levels of 1.3449 and 1.3434.
Important: Beginner forex traders need to make entry decisions very cautiously. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not practice money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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