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Last Friday, US equity indices ended the day lower. The S&P 500 fell 0.17%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.28%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.20%.
The dollar weakened against most major currencies after weak economic data from the United States reduced the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month. The dollar index declined 0.2%, while the MSCI emerging-market currencies index was close to finishing at a record high, with the Taiwan dollar and the Thai baht among the regional leaders.
Pressure on the US currency intensified after Friday's release showing that retail sales in July fell by the most in over a year as consumer spending eased. The scale of the repricing is striking. Swap traders are now assessing the probability of a Fed rate increase next month at less than 30%, versus roughly 50% a week ago. US Treasuries rallied: rate-sensitive two-year yields fell two basis points to 4.15%, while 10- and 30-year yields each lost one basis point.
This week, markets will eye the minutes of the July Fed meeting, which will shed light on the discussion that produced three committee members voting for a quarter-point rise. That is an unusually visible split at a time when policymakers face high inflation and mixed economic data.
Geopolitics remains the main source of uncertainty for commodity markets. Brent traded around $88.35 per barrel, swinging between gains and losses, as renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon and the prospect of fresh US sanctions on Iran heightened tensions. Investors are also watching attempts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which could put downward pressure on oil after last week's near 6% rise.
Elsewhere markets were mildly positive. The MSCI Asia-Pacific equity index rose 0.3%, Nasdaq 100 futures were up about 0.4% in early trading, and gold gained 0.4% to roughly $4,395 an ounce. Copper approached record territory, with the spot price near $478 per ton.
A technical picture for the S&P 500 suggests that buyers' immediate task today is to clear resistance at $7,810. That would demonstrate strength and open the way to $7,824. Controlling $7,841 would further cement the bulls' position. On the downside, in the event of falling risk appetite, buyers must defend $7,793. A break there may quickly push the index back to $7,774 and open the road to $7,756.
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