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The test of the 1.3528 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed the correctness of the entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points, and that was where the move ended.
In the second half of the day, the pound's direction will be determined by the US economic data releases, as the British currency has no significant domestic drivers. The focus will be on building permits, housing starts, industrial production, and the capacity utilization rate. Construction indicators serve as leading signals for the real estate sector, while industrial production and capacity utilization reflect the condition of the real economy. Through these channels, the data affects expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate policy and the strength of the dollar. Under these conditions, the pound becomes dependent on external factors. If the data is strong, similar to yesterday's scenario, pressure on GBP/USD will return, as dollar strength will weigh on the pair. Weak results, however, would support the British currency due to a weaker US dollar.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the entry point is reached around 1.3535 (the green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 1.3550 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3550, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Further growth in the pound today can only be expected as a continuation of the trend after weak US economic data. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just started moving upward from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3522 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3535 and 1.3550 can be expected.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3522 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3505 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pressure on the pound will return today if US data is positive. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just started moving downward from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3535 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3522 and 1.3505 can be expected.
Important: Beginner Forex traders need to make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an initially losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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