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On Thursday, silver (XAG/USD) was gaining momentum and was trading just below the round level of $70.00, up 2.75% for the day. This precious metal is moving towards the upper limit of the range that has constrained its price throughout the week as investor attention shifts to the symposium in Jackson Hole.
The key factor at the moment is the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, scheduled for Friday. Markets are looking for signals about how the American central bank assesses current inflationary pressures and what that means for future interest rate decisions.
During the July monetary policy meeting, Warsh did not provide clear guidance on the Fed's next steps but confirmed the central bank's readiness to return inflation to its 2% target. Such a statement on Friday could bolster expectations that rates will remain high for an extended period, which, in turn, would be negative for silver's growth.
Recent data from the U.S. continues to indicate persistent inflationary pressure. The consumer spending index (PCE) published on Wednesday shows that inflation still exceeds the Fed's target framework, although recent price benchmarks do not suggest a sharp acceleration. According to preliminary data from CME FedWatch, there is a 62% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the September monetary policy meeting.
Some Fed officials are also expressing caution regarding inflation trends. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted on Thursday that action is necessary due to ongoing inflationary pressure and added that the current monetary policy is not restrictive for the U.S. economy. She also emphasized the risk of households losing confidence in the Fed's ability to control inflation at the 2% level.
Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid highlighted that the energy shock is beginning to impact the economy, confirming the importance of returning to targeted inflation levels. Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee expressed the greatest short-term concern that inflation is not yet fully under control.
These statements could support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields if investors revise their expectations about monetary policy easing. A stronger dollar and rising interest rates often exert pressure on silver by increasing the opportunity costs of holding the metal.
However, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continues to provide some support for precious metals prices. Tension in the Strait of Hormuz remains high, despite negotiations between Iran and Oman, and concerns about energy supply support demand for safe-haven assets and inflation risks.
For better trading opportunities, it may be worth waiting for Warsh's speech on Friday, whose remarks will impact the dollar and may consequently provide momentum for silver.
From a technical perspective, silver is consolidating at the upper boundary of the weekly range, showing resilience below the 9-day EMA and the 66.83 level. Oscillators remain positive, confirming bullish dominance in the market. The path of least resistance is upward.
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