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The 1.1642 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential.
The euro is entering the second half of the day awaiting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole, which will be the key event of the session. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations will also be released, with both being important because they reflect consumers' willingness to spend and their expectations for future price growth. However, Warsh's rhetoric will determine where the dollar moves. The outlook for the single currency is directly linked to the tone of his speech. If Warsh takes a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need to keep interest rates high to combat inflation, the dollar will strengthen and EUR/USD will come under pressure. A calm message suggesting that the central bank is taking a cautious approach, by contrast, will weaken the U.S. currency and give the euro upward momentum. Given the importance of the event, the single currency is likely to experience increased volatility, with its direction determined entirely by how hawkish the Fed Chair proves to be.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1654 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.1706. At 1.1706, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. The euro's rise can be expected today only if Warsh delivers a dovish speech. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1639 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1654 and 1.1706 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1639 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1593, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Downward pressure on the pair will return if Warsh makes hawkish statements. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1654 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1639 and 1.1593 can be expected.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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