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The price test at 1.3582 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming that the entry point for selling the pound was correct. However, the pair did not experience a significant decline.
In the second half of the day, the direction of the pound will be determined by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech in Jackson Hole, as the British currency has no significant domestic catalysts today. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations will also provide additional information, as they help assess the state of demand and perceptions of inflation, but they are still less important than the comments of the central bank's head. The future dynamics of the dollar will depend on those comments. Under these conditions, the pound is becoming dependent on external factors. Hawkish rhetoric from Warsh, focused on keeping interest rates high, could strengthen the dollar and push GBP/USD lower, while a calm and cautious tone would weaken the U.S. currency and support the British pound.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point is reached around 1.3595 (the green line on the chart), with a target of rising toward 1.3645 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3645, I will close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level. The pound's rise today can be expected only if U.S. data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests 1.3578 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3595 and 1.3645 can be expected.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3578 level is broken (the red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3533, where I will close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level. Strong downward pressure on the pound will return if U.S. data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3595 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3578 and 1.3533 can be expected.
Important. Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during a news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire account balance very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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