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Today, Monday, gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to benefit from a moderate intraday rebound from below the 100-day SMA and remains under negative pressure. The US dollar, having weakened after reaching a two-week high on Friday, provided some support to the precious metal.
However, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh are fueling expectations of further interest rate hikes, limiting the rise in gold prices.
During his speech at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Warsh acknowledged the high level of inflation and hinted at the possibility of raising interest rates if no progress is made in reducing price pressures. Traders reacted quickly to these comments, pricing in a roughly 60% probability of a September rate hike. Moreover, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate hike in December stands at 88%, which contributed to the US dollar's rise to a two-week high on Friday and caused gold prices to fall by more than 3%.
As the new week begins, selling pressure remains steady, as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran are pushing oil prices higher and intensifying inflation concerns, thereby strengthening hawkish expectations regarding the Fed's actions.
On Sunday, US forces struck two missile launchers on Iran's Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first US strike against the Islamic Republic since late July. Iran responded by launching ballistic missiles at two US bases in Jordan. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that new secondary sanctions against Iran would likely be imposed on a weekly basis.
Despite the positive fundamental backdrop, the US dollar, as a safe-haven asset, is struggling to attract additional buying, partly due to low yields on US Treasury bonds. This is keeping traders from opening new bearish positions on gold and helping to limit the decline in the precious metal.
Nevertheless, the overall fundamental backdrop continues to favor dollar bulls, suggesting that any recovery in XAU/USD will most likely attract selling. Traders are eagerly awaiting key US macroeconomic data scheduled for the beginning of the new month, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will be released on Friday.
From a technical perspective, Friday's break below the 200-day SMA was viewed as an important bearish signal, and a break below the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) would provide a new bearish trigger, with support expected at the 200-day EMA. However, as long as the oscillators have not moved into negative territory, the bulls still have a chance to maintain their strength.
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