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Yesterday, stock indices closed in the red. The S&P 500 fell by 0.33%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 0.12%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.70%.
Global bonds declined in value, with yields reaching new highs amid concerns over rising inflation, which has fueled expectations for the Federal Reserve to increase borrowing costs as early as this month. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose by two basis points to 4.77%, marking the highest level since January 2025. Japanese 10-year bonds hit 3% for the first time since 1996.
As I noted earlier, the sell-off was driven by a reassessment of expectations following Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole. Traders revised the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed in September to 65%, up from just 34% prior to the speech. I remind you that the Fed chair emphasized the need to focus on prices and labeled the 2% target as a firm and fixed benchmark. It is significant that this movement is driven by more than just monetary expectations. Investors are demanding greater compensation for holding bonds in light of substantial government spending, persistent inflation, and a surge in corporate borrowing to finance the construction of AI infrastructure.
September will be a crucial month for central bank decisions. Swaps fully priced in a rate hike by the ECB at its meeting on September 10, with a 54% probability assigned to a hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia on September 29, a 92% probability for the Bank of Japan on September 18, and a 98% chance for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand later this week. As the policy trajectories of all major global central banks are revealed over the month, it creates a tight pricing window for the currency market. A widespread move towards tightening by central banks could put pressure on non-yielding gold and the US dollar.
In other markets, Brent crude oil rose momentarily by 1.2% to around $91.55 per barrel amid renewed conflict in the Middle East, before partially retreating from that rise. Gold remains under pressure, trading at $4,425 per ounce.
As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,698. This would signal growth and also open the possibility for a surge to a new level of $7,718. Equally important for bulls will be to maintain control over $7,737, which will strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downward movement amid a decline in risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $7,679. A break below that level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $7,656 and pave the way toward $7,633.
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