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US equity indices closed higher yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by 0.46%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.45%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.56%.
Asian index futures also strengthened during a volatile session. The MSCI Asia Pacific index climbed as much as 1.2% before giving back most of its gains by the close. South Korea's Kospi, often viewed as a barometer for AI investment, saw particularly sharp swings: it jumped by 1.8%, then plunged by 1.9%, ultimately finishing up a modest 0.3%.
The main headline for Asia was the yen, which strengthened for a second consecutive session. The sharp move prompted speculation about possible intervention by authorities. Notably, the appreciation began on Wednesday after a Bank of Japan board member signaled that an unusually large or repeat rate increase could be on the table. Overnight swaps now fully price a standard 25?bp hike in September, while the probability of an immediate 50-bp move is considered extremely low. Recall that Governor Kazuo Ueda effectively signaled a September hike, stressing the need to pay greater attention to upside price risks.
Oil paused a three-day rally, which relieved some pressure on US Treasuries. Brent fell by 1.3% to $94.35/bbl after US President Donald Trump said renewed strikes on Iran are likely to be short-lived and reiterated that the US controls the Strait of Hormuz. The 10-year US Treasury yield eased by one basis point to 4.77%, and the US dollar index fell by 0.2% for a second straight session. Gold climbed by 0.9% to settle at about $4,420/oz.
Outside oil, commodity markets deserve close attention. European natural gas futures rose for a fourth consecutive day, heading toward the highest levels since early 2023. This is a particularly worrying signal given that European storage is only around 65% full ahead of winter. Industrial metals also advanced, with London copper trading less than $300/ton shy of recent highs.
All eyes now turn to Friday's US employment report, which will provide fresh clues on the economy and the outlook for monetary policy.
As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,679. That would signal renewed upside and open the path to $7,698. Maintaining control above $7,718 would further strengthen the bulls' case. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,656 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,633 and open the way to $7,607.
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