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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the European currency and began rising toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.1620. This move is continuing on Thursday morning. A rebound from 1.1620 would favor the US dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1551. Consolidation above 1.1620 would allow for further growth toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1700.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains bullish despite the two-week decline. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken below the previous low. Geopolitical developments remain consistently negative: negotiations between Iran and the United States are not taking place, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place. However, the FOMC's stance is currently more important for the dollar, and it remains highly contradictory.
The fundamental backdrop on Wednesday did not allow the bears to continue their steady advance. The day's only report, the ADP private-sector employment report, showed a weak reading. The number of new employees increased by only 38,000 in August. What is 38,000 for a country with a population of 350 million? Traders were also expecting relatively little—just 50,000 new jobs—but even this modest forecast was not met. Thus, the bears were forced to retreat in the second half of the day. During the first half of the week, they had managed to ignore the less-than-positive economic data from the United States, but the closer Friday gets, the greater the risks. Let me remind you that all of the latest Nonfarm Payrolls reports came in below market expectations, including the annual report. Thus, there is a high probability that we will again see a weak reading on Friday. In that case, my doubts about an FOMC monetary policy tightening in September will increase further, while the market's hawkish sentiment will decline in any case. For the dollar, which has only just begun to rise, this could become a major problem.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline and has consolidated below the upward-sloping trend channel. A new rebound from the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1588 has increased the prospects for a modest rise in the euro. Consolidation below 1.1588 would allow for a resumption of the decline toward the next retracement level, 38.2%, at 1.1526. No divergences are currently developing on any of the indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 2,678 Long positions and closed 20,058 Short positions. During the seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage evaporated because of the war in Iran, while over the past twenty-two weeks, the situation has become more balanced amid the apparent ceasefire and market hopes for an end to the war. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 198,000, while the number of Short positions stands at 235,000. The bears remain in the lead, but their advantage is narrowing rapidly.
Overall, over the long term, large market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro. Of course, events of various kinds around the world, which have been plentiful in recent years, affect investor sentiment. In particular, the market is currently keeping a close eye on the situation in the Middle East, where the war seems to end and then starts again. However, geopolitics no longer determines the dollar's fate on its own.
News Calendar for the United States and the European Union:
The September 3 economic calendar contains four entries, of which I can highlight only the ISM index. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment on Thursday during the second half of the day.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Buying the pair is possible today after a close above 1.1620 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1700. Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from 1.1700 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1620. However, the target level was not reached. New short positions are possible after a rebound from 1.1620, with a target of 1.1551.
The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.1620–1.1325 on the hourly chart and from 1.1849–1.1325 on the 4-hour chart.
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