14.09.202614:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: WTI extends gains as Middle East tensions raise supply risk

See also: InstaForex trading indicators for WTI (CL)

WTI continued to advance on Monday, trading around $102.50 at the time of this note and up roughly 3% since the session opened. The principal catalyst is a sharp deterioration in the security situation in the Middle East: the preemptive shutdown of Saudi Arabia's major East-West pipeline after drone attacks and the postponement of a planned Iran–Gulf states meeting to discuss shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key drivers

Closure of the East-West pipeline threatens supply. Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy confirmed the pipeline was attacked and was closed as a precaution. The route is a critical export artery that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Experts estimate the closure threatens as much as 4% of global oil supply. No restart timetable has been announced, which increases market uncertainty.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively paralyzed. After a weekend of attacks on commercial vessels, the strategic waterway is exceptionally tense. Houthi advances near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait threaten another key transit route, forcing tankers to take longer routes and further supporting prices.

The Iran–Gulf meeting is postponed. A planned Monday meeting in Oman to discuss a temporary arrangement for Hormuz was postponed after, according to an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Saudi Arabia insisted on canceling the session. That development heightened concerns over regional shipping security.

OPEC+ keeps production unchanged. At its September 6 meeting the group left October quotas unchanged, the first pause in an expansion cycle that began in April. Against the backdrop of Middle East escalation and some producers unable to hit quotas, that decision supplies no offset to the geopolitical premium.

Brief technical analysis

Price is attempting to hold above the psychological $100 mark and remains well inside a bull market, trading significantly above key moving averages (50-, 144-, and 200-period) on daily and weekly charts. The technical bias remains bullish, although overbought signals are emerging.

Indicators and moving averages

- Daily RSI (14) sits around 70, in overbought territory.

- OsMA and Stochastic show no clear reversal signals, though Stochastic remains near the upper edge of overbought territory.

- Daily EMA50 - $87.10, EMA144 - $83.50, EMA200 - $81.45, confirming a medium-term uptrend.

Key levels

Resistance: $103.83 (today's high), $104.00 (psychological), $104.45 (last week's high), $105.00, $106.00, $110.00 (further targets).

Support: $102.00, $101.00 (round levels), $100.00 (psychological), $95.30 (H1 EMA200).

See also: WTI (CL): possible dynamics on 14.09.2026

Events to watch

The main question this week is when Saudi Arabia will reopen the East-West pipeline. No official timeline has been provided, and that uncertainty is the key market variable. If operators announce a restart this week, the geopolitical premium could unwind quickly, and WTI could retrace toward $98.00–$100.00.

Other key events:

- Wednesday, September 16—FOMC concludes. The market is pricing an 85–90% chance of a rate move, so the outcome is largely discounted; Fed rhetoric will be critical. A hawkish tone will strengthen the dollar and pressure oil, while a neutral tone could allow oil to extend gains amid persistent regional risk.

- Thursday, September 17 — US initial jobless claims. A secondary indicator, but in a sensitive environment it can tweak Fed expectations.

- Friday, September 18—The BOJ meeting wraps up, and final Michigan inflation expectations are published. These events can influence dollar dynamics and risk sentiment, indirectly affecting oil.

- OPEC+ signals: the group has agreed to keep output steady for October, but if disruptions persist into November, the organization may revisit policy. The next ministerial meeting is scheduled for October 4, though an emergency meeting is possible. Monitor API/EIA US inventory reports and any developments around the Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb straits.

Conclusion and recommendations

WTI retains an upside impulse as Middle East tensions and supply risks persist. Short-term technicals signal a possible pullback, but the medium-term structure stays bullish while price holds above the 200-day EMA.

For short-term traders:

- Consider long positions on a sustained break above $104.10 with targets of $105.00–$106.10 and a stop below $101.80.

- Consider short positions on a break below $101.80 with targets of $101.00–$100.10 and a stop above $104.10.

- Follow Middle East developments and FOMC outcomes closely; newsflow can trigger sudden moves.

For medium-term investors:

- The medium-term bias is bullish while price remains above $95.00–$95.30 (H1 EMA200).

- A correction to $100.00–$98.00 could be used to add to long positions if geopolitical tensions persist.

Risk management

- Expect elevated volatility on geopolitical news.

- Use strict stop-losses, especially on breakout trades of key levels.

- Monitor US dollar dynamics and Fed messaging for directional cues.