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Bitcoin has traded in a sideways channel for three weeks after a sharp surge to $18,000. Recall that Bitcoin often, within strong trends, pauses and then, even without a correction, posts a new powerful move. Thus, Bitcoin's current inability to continue moving north does not mean the local "north impulse" has ended. However, that impulse is precisely local. On the daily TF, "digital gold" is clearly within a sideways channel. And we remind you that a flat can form on any TF. If it is a weekly chart, a flat can last for years. Most importantly, Bitcoin is currently located near the upper boundary of the sideways channel. That means a deviation may form as liquidity is removed from the previous high, or at least a simple bounce. In any case, the downtrend remains unbroken, as clearly visible on the daily and weekly TFs.
This week, the Federal Reserve meeting in the U.S. will surely influence Bitcoin's price. At present, we still have no confidence that the Fed will tighten policy. However, a hike on Wednesday would weigh on Bitcoin, the crypto market, and all risk assets — especially if Kevin Warsh signals that September may not be the only tightening move in the near term. Conversely, if the Fed leaves the key rate unchanged, that would be a lifeline for "digital gold." The market is currently completely flat.
On the daily TF, Bitcoin continues forming a downtrend and has entered a flat phase. The trend structure is identified as downward, and the CHOCH line sits at $82,800, where the last LH (Lower High) formed. Only above that level can the downtrend be considered complete. For most of 2026, "digital gold" has traded between $60,000 and $82,500, which means the price may remove liquidity from the last LH and start a new move toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel.
On the 4-hour TF, Bitcoin is also clearly flat and has twice removed sell-side liquidity, leading to a drop toward the lower channel boundary. No deviation and buy signal has formed at the lower boundary yet, but that boundary may still be tested soon. As long as price remains within the $75,600–81,200 channel, we advise traders to trade only from the channel's borders. Internal patterns currently do not matter.
Bitcoin continues to form a downtrend despite the strong mid-August rally. We continue to expect a drop toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), although this level has essentially already been worked out. We do not believe the downtrend has ended. The recent rise of the top cryptocurrency only weakly resembles a correction, but that is not a sufficient reason to open longs. Liquidity may be taken from the $82,850 high, which could provoke a new leg of the downtrend. On the 4-hour TF, long positions may become relevant in the near term if price forms a deviation around the lower boundary of the sideways channel.
CHOCH – change of trend structure.
Liquidity – liquidity, Stop Losses, pending orders that market-makers use to accumulate positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap. A price area of inefficiency. Price passes through these areas quickly, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.
IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, price doesn't react; it impulsively breaks it and then tests it from the other side.
OB – Order block. The candle where a market-maker opened a position aiming to take liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.
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