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On Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) rises above the $4,300 mark again but remains near the six-week lows recorded the previous day. The US dollar is weakening slightly after reaching its highest level since late July, providing some support for the precious metal.
Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to continue supporting the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and limiting the upward potential of non-yielding gold.
At its September meeting, which concluded on Wednesday, the US central bank unanimously voted to raise interest rates — the first such increase since 2023. The decision was in line with market expectations and was accompanied by more hawkish projections regarding the regulator's further actions. In particular, the so-called "dot plot" showed that Fed officials expect one more rate hike this year. At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that the decision was made against the backdrop of a strengthening US economy, a lack of improvement in inflation dynamics during the summer, and geopolitical factors.
Warsh also noted that inflation has remained too high for an extended period and emphasized the importance of stabilizing consumer prices for healthy growth in the US economy. In addition, risks associated with persistently high energy prices are supporting expectations of further Fed tightening and contributing to higher US government bond yields.
The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is hovering around the psychologically important 5.0% level, approaching highs not seen since April 2007. These factors, combined with the worsening situation in the Middle East, are supporting the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.
The latest reports state that Iran-backed Houthi rebels have reported more than 450 Saudi airstrikes on Yemen over the past week, as well as claiming that they shot down a Saudi F-15 fighter jet over Marib Province. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that Iran is seeking a deal and that the war may be coming to an end. However, the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia continues to maintain a geopolitical risk premium, exerting additional influence on oil prices. This is favorable for dollar bulls and makes market participants cautious about opening long positions in XAU/USD.
In the short term, the outlook for gold remains bearish until the price breaks above the 200-day EMA and the 100-day SMA. This area will become an important turning point: if XAU/USD consolidates above it, this could open the way toward the $4,400 level. On the other hand, the nearest support is at $4,225, the September low. If this level fails to hold, prices will accelerate their decline toward the round $4,200 level. The oscillators are mixed, while the Relative Strength Index is negative, indicating that the bulls have limited strength.
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