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The EUR/USD pair attempted a modest correction for the second day in a row on Friday. It again performed poorly, even though the only somewhat important release — US industrial production — printed weaker than expected. As we have noted repeatedly, the market is actively ignoring factors that do not support the US dollar. Thus the US industrial-production print did not trouble the dollar, and the market remains focused on the Federal Reserve meeting, stubbornly unwilling to sell the greenback. For now, the euro is held from a fresh decline only by the 1.1461–1.1473 area. If that zone is broken, sellers will likely resume pushing EUR/USD lower. We cannot seriously discuss euro strength until the trend line is breached to the upside. This week's economic calendar is light in both the euro area and the US, so neither the euro nor the dollar is likely to get a strong new impulse — the week will most likely be corrective.
Technically, a downtrend continues to form and is now taking on the character of a full-blown trend. The market once again ignored the European Central Bank's hawkish decision but emphatically priced the Fed's hike. If this continues, the dollar may remain strong for a long time.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, one buy signal formed that traders could have worked. Because an upward correction is building over the last couple of days, we believe buy signals in the 1.1461–1.1473 area merit attention. However, the euro's upside potential is limited given prevailing market sentiment.
The latest COT report is dated September 15. On the weekly timeframe, non-commercial traders' net position remains bearish and fell sharply in 2026 amid geopolitical events. Traders have been reducing euro exposure in favor of the US dollar over the past six months. Trump's policy has not changed, but the dollar acted as a reserve currency for a time.
However, we still do not see fundamental factors for further USD strength. The Middle East war made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, but when that factor's "shelf life" expires, everything should return to normal — and that shelf life may already have expired. In the long term, the euro could fall as low as $1.08 (trend line), but the long-term uptrend remains intact. During recent months of dollar strength, the pair has not come close to that trend line.
The placement of the red and blue indicator lines indicates approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 10.5k contracts while shorts fell by 5.1k. Accordingly, the net position rose by 15.6k contracts for the week.
On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend, and the Fed has strongly supported the southbound move. The ECB should have supported the euro last week when it raised rates for the second time in 2026, but the market now sees only the Fed and its tightening. Thus, the dollar has effectively formed a new trend out of thin air, and market sentiment may remain fully bearish going forward.
For September 21 we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830–1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1589) and the Kijun-sen (1.1505). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Remember to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the right direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal proves false.
On Monday, the economic calendars for the euro area and the US are empty, so traders will have little to react to on the first trading day of the week. We should expect sluggish, predominantly sideways movement today.
Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.1362–1.1368 if price consolidates below the 1.1461–1.1473 area. A bounce from the 1.1461–1.1473 area would allow you to open long positions targeting 1.1527–1.1542. Volatility today may be low.
Support and resistance price levels are thick red lines where movement may conclude. They are not sources of trading signals.
The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
Yellow lines indicate trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the size of the net position of each category of traders.
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