24.09.202611:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD – Price Analysis and Forecast: Gold Remains Under Pressure Ahead of the Trump–Xi Summit

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure, trading below the round level of $4,300. Traders are awaiting the important meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Market participants should pay attention to any news regarding progress on rare-earth metal supplies, technology restrictions, and the extension of the ceasefire between the US and China. Such news could provide upward momentum for the precious metal.

Nevertheless, any intraday gains are likely to remain limited amid growing expectations of an interest-rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, which traditionally puts pressure on gold.

According to data from CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders estimate the probability that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in October at around 70%. These expectations increased after the release of the results of a private survey showing that US business activity increased for the fourth consecutive month in September. In particular, the preliminary S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 56.0 in August to 58.4, reaching its highest level since July 2021.

At the same time, tensions between the US and Iran once again came into focus at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), where Trump stated that Iran faced a choice between diplomacy and complete destruction. In response, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran would never kneel but was ready for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. He also emphasized that any agreement should include the lifting of the US blockade affecting Iranian ports and maritime transportation in the Strait of Hormuz area. This led to higher crude oil prices, once again increasing concerns about inflation and reinforcing expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Fed.

Growing market confidence that the US central bank will maintain a hawkish stance led the yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds to reach its highest level since July 2007 on Wednesday, while the US dollar reached a new two-month high. This creates conditions for a further short-term decline in gold prices, although cautious trading dynamics require bearish traders to remain alert. To confirm the negative outlook, the price of gold needs to fall below the local monthly low, at approximately $4,233, recorded last Wednesday.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains under pressure, trading below the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). At the same time, negative oscillators confirm the bears' advantage. Therefore, any attempts at recovery are likely to be accompanied by selling while the price remains below the key resistance level.

The nearest support level is the September low, followed by the round level of $4,200. On the upside, the nearest resistance is at the $4,317 retracement level—the 200-day EMA. This is followed by the 100-day EMA. A decisive break above this resistance zone would be required to ease bearish sentiment.