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During Wednesday's European trading session, the XAU/USD pair continues to consolidate below the $4,200 level, under the influence of conflicting fundamental factors. Falling US Treasury yields are pulling the dollar away from the two-month high reached the previous day, providing support for gold.
However, expectations of tighter monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve are limiting price growth, as traders prefer to wait for the release of important US macroeconomic data before opening new positions in gold.
Later today, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be released — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator — along with the final second-quarter GDP data. This week will also see the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. In addition, speeches by key members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will provide clues about the central bank's future monetary policy. These events could have a significant impact on the dollar exchange rate and gold price dynamics.
According to the Bloomberg consensus forecast, September is expected to see an increase of 90,000 in nonfarm payrolls, down from 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.
At the same time, analyzing Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh's emphasis on the "four-week moving average of initial jobless claims as a timely indicator of labor market conditions," OCBC strategists emphasize that "payrolls remain the market's preferred gauge of labor market health."
In this context, OCBC strategists reaffirm their forecast, expecting moderate strengthening of the US dollar through the end of the year. They also note that markets are pricing in almost four Fed rate hikes next year, which could prove to be an overly aggressive scenario unless demand-driven inflation once again becomes a significant source of price pressure.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields have retreated from multi-year highs amid a decline in crude oil prices to a three-week low and "dovish" comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who noted that the Fed should not rush to make decisions.
In addition, data from the Conference Board showed that the US Consumer Confidence Index came in below forecasts in September, falling to 81.9, its lowest level since 2014. This could lead to further profit-taking on long dollar positions, which would support gold.
However, CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that traders still expect a more than 90% probability of another Fed rate hike by the end of the year. Persistent geopolitical uncertainty related to the confrontation between the US and Iran is also supporting the dollar as a "safe-haven asset," discouraging the opening of aggressive long positions in XAU/USD. In particular, hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the US and Iran weakened after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire.
An additional factor was the lack of significant progress in Qatar's efforts to achieve a breakthrough in US-Iran relations this week. US officials also suggest that Trump could order the resumption of large-scale military operations after the midterm elections. This creates a risk of escalating tensions in the Middle East and supports demand for the dollar during its decline.
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair finds support at $4,100, while resistance is at $4,200. The oscillators are negative, and the bears have the upper hand. Bearish pressure could begin to ease once the 200-day EMA is overcome.
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