07.10.202614:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Money to flow between AI and crypto

Bitcoin is trading under pressure from sellers. Risk assets are being hit by rising oil, bond yields and the dollar. The market is also awaiting the minutes of the September Fed meeting due later today and is pricing in roughly a 20% chance of a rate hike in October. Against this backdrop, World Liberty Financial co?founder Eric Trump said he believes AI will become the fastest driver of growth for digital assets. That is not a new claim — many experts in the field have expressed similar views.

According to Trump, the faster participants in the AI industry race toward their goals, the better for the crypto industry. He gave an example of an AI agent asked to book a holiday: it would pay from a crypto wallet rather than with fiat currency. He partly explained Bitcoin's fall from a record $126,000 in October last year by saying investors sold crypto into AI stocks. Now, in his view, money is flowing back, and going forward it will continuously move between the two markets.

Trump also touched on stablecoins. He believes the growth of dollar?backed stablecoins will support demand for US government debt. Unsurprisingly, he was promoting his own stablecoin. USD1's market cap is currently around $4.45 billion, and in August the OCC conditionally approved the creation of World Liberty's national trust bank to issue dollar stablecoins and custody assets.

As for the actual flows of funds, my base case is this: the AI thesis works more as a long?term narrative, while in the near term prices will be driven by the Fed minutes, oil and yields — especially since inflows to spot ETFs continue, albeit with temporary pauses and outflows.

Bitcoin: the instrument is trading in a narrow corridor between support at $83,600 and resistance at $84,000, with outer bands at $82,800 and $84,800. The plan is built around two mirror scenarios with full breakout and bounce setups. There are two entries for longs. First, a verified breakout above $84,000: buy targeting $84,800, where I will take profits and consider a short on the pullback, provided price is above the 50?day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. Second, a bounce off $83,600 if a downside breakout fails and turns out to be false: buy for a return first to $84,000 and then to $84,800.

Short setups are the mirror image. On a confirmed break below $83,600, consider a short targeting $82,800, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a breakout above $84,000 fails and price falls back below that level, start a short from resistance aiming for a return to $83,600 and then $82,800.

Ethereum: the logic mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. Inner corridor between support $2,566 and resistance $2,587, outer bands at $2,522 and $2,623. Buy on a confirmed break above $2,587 targeting $2,623, where we take profits and consider a short position on the pullback; the same conditions apply — the price above the 50?day MA and Awesome Oscillator above zero. Buy on a bounce from $2,566 if a downside breakout is unconfirmed, aiming first for $2,587, then $2,623.

For shorts, a confirmed break below $2,566 opens a short targeting $2,522, provided the MA is above price and Awesome is below zero. A failed breakout above $2,587 that reverses gives a short back to $2,566 and then $2,522. Both indicators serve as filters to weed out false moves rather than standalone entry signals; decisions are taken only after price confirmation of the specified levels.