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The EUR/USD pair resumed its downward move on Wednesday—without any clear reason. The downtrend persists, as shown by the trendline, and no one in the market even asks what is driving the dollar's continued strength. Yesterday the euro fell again. Of the day's important events, only the Federal Reserve minutes were published late in the evening, after the latest rally had already finished. Thus, the Fed minutes could not have caused the new dollar rise. One might argue the euro is under pressure because of the French budget crisis, but that reason looks like an excuse. With the same logic, the market could find a million reasons every day to keep buying the dollar for months. Remember that fiscal problems exist not only in France but also in the United States. Sovereign-debt issues are not confined to the EU—they exist in America too. Monetary tightening is not happening only in the US but also in the eurozone. Bond yields are rising in both the EU and the US. Therefore, the euro and dollar are at least on equal footing, yet for a month we have seen the euro collapse versus the dollar.
Technically, the downtrend formation continues. The market has been buying the dollar for the fifth consecutive week. The trendline remains relevant, price sits below the Ichimoku lines, and therefore the pair's decline is fully consistent from a technical point of view.
On the 5-minute TF on Wednesday, one sell signal was generated. During the European session, price closed below 1.1221, allowing traders to open short positions. Note that a day earlier, a sell signal also formed in the 1.1266–1.1274 area, which could carry over into Wednesday's trading.
The latest COT report is dated September 29. On the weekly TF chart, non-commercial traders' net position remains "bearish" and fell significantly in 2026 due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the euro in favor of the US dollar over the past six months. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar has, for a time, acted as a "reserve currency."
However, we still do not see any fundamental factors for further strengthening of the US currency. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super-attractive, and the Federal Reserve's monetary stance surprised the dollar for the second time this year. In the long term, the euro could fall even to $1.08 (the trendline), but the uptrend will remain relevant. However, in recent weeks the market has accounted only for factors positive to the dollar and ignored all others.
The arrangement of the red and blue indicator lines points to an approximate parity between bulls and bears. During the last reporting week, longs in the "Non-commercial" group rose by 17,500, while short positions rose by 28,400. Accordingly, the net position for the week decreased by 10,900 contracts.
On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues to form a downward trend. The Fed strongly aided the development of the downward trend, but that factor is unlikely to be the true reason for the dollar's strength several weeks after the meeting. The European Central Bank should have supported the euro, having raised rates twice in 2026, and Friday's US data should have provoked a dollar collapse. But the market now sees no factors supporting the euro. Thus, the dollar continues forming a strong trend that now depends only on market sentiment.
For October 8 we highlight the following trading levels — 1.1092, 1.1147, 1.1221, 1.1274, 1.1362–1.1368, 1.1461–1.1473, 1.1536–1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657–1.1665, and also the Senkou Span B line (1.1347) and Kijun-sen (1.1222). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, so account for this when determining trading signals. Don't forget to move the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.
On Thursday, no important releases are scheduled in the Eurozone, and in the US only the secondary initial-jobless-claims report is due. We do not expect any market reaction, and today's moves will again be largely technical.
Traders can consider targets for short positions near 1.1147 if price is rejected today from the 1.1221–1.1222 area. If the trendline is breached, consider targets for long positions: 1.1362–1.1368 and 1.1405.
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