08.10.202609:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The Fed Minutes and High Oil Prices Keep Gold on Edge

Gold rose 0.8% to approach $4,140/oz. Silver gained 0.3% to $59.97 after a 2.5% drop the day before; platinum and palladium also advanced.

Two factors helped the bounce. On Wednesday, a tanker was struck by projectiles off Qatar — a rare attack this far inside the Persian Gulf — and reports emerged that the White House is weighing options for strikes on Iranian targets before the November midterms. Chinese buyers also returned from a week-long holiday, restoring activity to Asian markets. Notably, even this news pack lifted metals by less than 1%: the market treats geopolitics as a reason for a short breather rather than a structural reversal.

The reason for gold's weakness hasn't changed. Since the US–Iran conflict re-escalated in late February, the metal has fallen roughly one-fifth because a sharp rise in energy prices has boosted inflation and pushed central banks toward tightening — the main enemy of a non-yielding asset like gold. Middle East crude flows are estimated to be near pre-war levels, but elevated risks drove freight costs to records, and a Gulf storm added pressure on energy supply. Inflation remains high, so rates remain elevated, keeping gold under pressure.

The Federal Reserve minutes for September reinforced that picture. All 19 FOMC members supported the rate hike, and the majority think another hike will likely be appropriate by year-end. Investors price in roughly a 20% chance of a hike at the late-October meeting and about an 80% chance in December.

My view: gold will likely trade in a narrow range with a slight downward bias in the coming sessions. New strikes on Iran or attacks on vessels could produce short spikes, but with the dollar near yearly highs and an 80% chance of a December hike, a sustained reversal is unlikely. For a durable rally, you need falling yields, a weaker dollar, and lower oil — a combination not yet visible. Key catalysts to watch are US inflation prints and the Fed meeting on October 28.

Technical picture: buyers need to take the near resistance at $4,186 to target $4,249, above which a breakout would be difficult. The far target is the $4,304 area. On the downside, bears will try to seize $4,124. If they succeed, a range break would seriously damage bulls and push gold toward $4,062, with a prospect of reaching $4,047.