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On Thursday, XAU/USD keeps an intraday bullish bias and is attempting to clear the 9-day EMA. Dollar weakness and falling US Treasury yields support the precious metal.
The market's initial reaction to hotter-than-expected US inflation data quickly faded. Investors concluded the Federal Reserve will not rush into an immediate rate increase. That prompted Treasury yields to retreat and traders to trim long positions on the dollar, allowing gold to end a three-day decline and move away from Wednesday's weekly low.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline CPI rose to 3.7% year-on-year in September from 3.4% in August, beating analysts' forecasts. Core CPI increased to 2.6% from 2.4% in August.
The prints point to persistent price pressure and formally support arguments for further Fed tightening. However, San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly's comments were more restrained. She said further rate increases may be needed but emphasized there is no need to make that decision at the October meeting.
FXS Speechtracker scored Daly's remarks 6.8 out of 10 — moderately hawkish and above the historical average of 6.1. At the same time, her stance implies no immediate tightening but a wait-and-see approach: the Fed prefers to wait for new data, assessing core inflation persistence, labor-market conditions, and energy-price dynamics.
The FXS Fed-sentiment index fell 0.84 points to 128.17 but remains well above the neutral 100, indicating a continued hawkish tilt in rhetoric while shifting to a more cautious stance.
The market still prices in a greater than 85% chance of another Fed hike before year-end. New jumps in energy prices could lend further support to that scenario by boosting inflationary pressure.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East also support the dollar and may limit the USD index's current correction from its April 2025 highs.
Reports include an incident in the Strait of Hormuz where a container ship sank after being hit by a projectile. Iran-backed Houthi forces continue drone and missile attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia and have threatened further strikes on the country's international airport and oil infrastructure. At the same time, Russia accused Ukraine of attacks on two refineries, claiming breached agreements. Rising tensions in the Middle East and elsewhere can sustain demand for the US dollar.
Technically, XAU/USD remains under pressure, trading below the 9-day EMA, which acts as resistance. Oscillators are negative, confirming the bears' advantage. Bearish pressure can ease only after a break above the 20-day SMA near the round level of $4,200. Immediate support sits at the round level of $4,100.
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