20.10.202600:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CHF. Analysis. Forecast. Swiss Franc Under Pressure

On Monday, USD/CHF showed modest gains: the US dollar is recovering after last week's correction, which followed a sharp drop in US Treasury yields; at the time of writing, the pair trades near 0.8263, up about 0.27% for the day.

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose roughly 7 basis points to about 5.13% after falling to 5.03% on Thursday — the lowest level since 23 September. Last week's sharp decline in yields was driven by an equity sell-off, notably in AI-related stocks, which pushed investors to reallocate from risk assets into government bonds.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, sits near 101.95 after easing to 101.58 on Friday.

The dollar also gets support from euro weakness tied to political uncertainty and growing doubts about the sustainability of France's public finances. Expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening also limit the dollar's decline.

US inflation prints published last week topped consensus. Headline CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month in September and 3.7% year-on-year. Core CPI was 2.6% versus 2.5% expected. Producer prices were also stronger than forecast, reinforcing concerns that price pressure could remain above the Fed's 2% target for longer.

Still, most market participants expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged this month after the 25-bp hike in September. Fed chair Kevin Warsh gave no forward guidance on Friday, saying, "I don't predetermine outcomes of future meetings." CME FedWatch currently prices roughly a 15% chance of a hike at the 27–28 October meeting and about an 89% probability of a hike by December.

Prospects for further Fed tightening weigh on the Swiss franc, especially since the Swiss National Bank keeps its policy rate at zero. The bar for a SNB rate increase looks high because Swiss inflation remains within the 0–2% price-stability range.

At the same time, demand for the franc as a safe haven amid geopolitical risks and political instability in France can support the currency versus other major currencies.

Technically, the pair has shown support below the 50-day EMA. The next support is the 50-day SMA, below which price could drop to the 100-day SMA. Resistance sits near 0.8280. To reduce selling pressure, bulls need to break the 20-day SMA around the round 0.8300 level. Oscillators are mixed, and bulls have lost some momentum, as indicated by a negative RSI.

The table below shows percentage changes of the Swiss franc versus major currencies for the current month. The franc's biggest strengthening has been versus the euro.