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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward move on Wednesday, driven by several key factors this week. First, the UK unemployment rate came in much more favorable than expected. Yesterday, the inflation report came in above forecasts, increasing the likelihood that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy at its next meeting. In principle, the BoE moving to raise the key rate was not in doubt already in the summer. It is clear that inflation in the UK will rise, as in Europe and the U.S. Thus, the BoE has no reason to keep the rate unchanged. The market is currently reacting to macroeconomic events and the BoE's hawkish prospects. Therefore, the pound is rising. The euro, for example, does not react to similar events and the European Central Bank's prospects, so sterling and the euro now show a low degree of correlation.
Technically, the pound has made several steps not only toward a correction but also toward a strong and lasting uptrend. Since the sideways channels on the daily and weekly TFs remain relevant, it is logical to expect a rise to their upper boundaries after bouncing from the lower ones. This gives traders the nearest target — 1.3650.
On the 5-minute TF, three buy signals formed on Wednesday. Price bounced three times from the 1.3369–1.3377 support area, but all three signals duplicated each other, so traders should have opened only one long position. At the moment, none of the buy signals are invalidated, and sterling may continue a moderate rise.
COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated selling for several months. The net position remains negative despite the persistent long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that dollar demand remained fairly high in 2026. The US–Iran war is formally on pause but not over. The Federal Reserve's changed monetary stance also supports the dollar, and the ascending trend line has been overcome. However, it was broken amid a flat, so we do not consider the uptrend complete.
Over the long run, the dollar continues to weaken under Donald Trump-associated policies, as shown on the weekly chart. The trade war will continue in one form or another, and Trump's policies weaken the US currency both directly and indirectly. The long-term uptrend remains intact. According to the latest COT report (October 13), the "Non-commercial" group closed 1,100 contracts and opened 8,300 SELL contracts — a net reduction of 9,400 contracts in the group's net position over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD has begun to form a logical, consistent uptrend. On the daily and weekly TFs, the price cleared liquidity from previous lows and remained inside sideways channels. Therefore, one can expect the pound to rise at least to the 1.3650 level, the upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily chart. Reasons for the pound's rise are not required, just as reasons were not required for the dollar's rise last month.
For October 22 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3253) and the Kijun-sen (1.3336) can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day, so traders should account for this when determining trading signals.
Today neither the UK nor the US have any important events scheduled, apart from the largely secondary initial jobless-claims report. In the UK, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak, but he is unlikely to tell the market anything new, since it is already clear that the central bank will be forced to raise the key rate at the next meeting. This factor and the price being above the 1.3369–1.3377 support area may provoke further pound appreciation.
Traders can consider the 1.3301–1.3309 area as a target for short positions if the price holds below the 1.3369–1.3377 area. A bounce from the 1.3369–1.3377 area allows considering 1.3465–1.3480 as a target for long positions.
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