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Trading plan for 05/06/2017:
Today's volatility is limited and, given today's holiday in many important financial centers, it is difficult to count on a change of this situation. The strong finish of the week on Wall Street does not improve the mood in Asia. Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are under the line. Of the major indexes, only gains are rising by modest 0.2%. Nikkei225. EUR/USD retreats towards 1.1250. USD/JPY is rising above 110.50.
On Monday 5th of June 2017, the event calendar is light in economic releases, but the global investors will pay attention to set of the PMI releases from across the Eurozone, PMI Services data from the UK and Revised Nonfarm Productivity data from the US.
GBP/USD analysis for 05/06/2017:
The PMI Services and PMI Composite data are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and the market participants expect a slight decrease from 55.8 points last month to 55.1 points in a current month. The PMI Composite is expected to slightly deteriorate too, from 56.2 points to 55.5 points in the current month. Both of today's PMI's will be read as the last major economic release ahead of Thursday's general election in Britain. With the PMI's above the fifty level ( it divides the economic expansion from the contraction), it looks like the worst fears about the Brexit fallout for Britain's economy after the Brexit are now under control. Nevertheless, there are some of the sectors and economic indicators that are not quite following the path of the prosperity. The rising inflation, falling real wages, and slower economic growth does not really fit into Bank of England economic expectations. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is still estimation a quarterly GDP at the level of 0.2% this year, which means the performance is at least sluggish. If today's PMI data will surprise to the downside, then the GDP outlook would have to be revised down as the services sector is responsible for around 80% of Britain's economic activity. Eventually, the value of the Pound might decrease in time.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 timeframe. The price is trading inside of a tight range between the levels of 1.2920 - 1.2844. The overall market conditions look overbought and the momentum indicator is hovering around its fifty level. The most important level, the technical support zone between the levels of 1.2772 - 1.2706 is still holding the line, so the overall bias should be bullish, but the fact that the price is still trading below the golden trend line is not encouraging. To regain the control over the market, the bulls must break out above the technical resistance at the level of 1.2920 and head towards the next resistance at the level of 1.3009.
Market Snapshot: EUR/USD still on highs, but no momentum
The price of EUR/USD is trading around the level of 1.1266 in overbought market conditions. There is a clear bearish divergence between the momentum indicator and the price, so at least corrective pull-back is expected in this market. The next support is seen at the level of 1.2001.
Market Snapshot: Crude Oil jumps higher after the news
The price of the Crude Oil jumped up towards the important resistance around the level of $48.24 after the news regarding Middle East situation hits the newswires (Saudi Arabia cuts diplomatic ties with Qatar and closing the borders). The next challenge for bulls is to break out above the nave trend line resistance and head towards the level of $48.98. The next support is seen at the level of $47.71.
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