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Trading plan for 19/07/2017:
It was a calm night on financial markets. EUR/USD is testing the support at 1.1550, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3030 support. The strongest currency is still the Australian Dollar, which is supported not only by the optimistic views of monetary authorities on the economy but also by a rapid rally of iron ore prices. On Wall Street, another flat session came to an end, so the Asian stocks are not moving to new highs either. Only Hang Seng index goes up almost 1.0% today.
On Wednesday 19th of July, the event calendar is very light in important economic releases, only during the US session market participants will get familiar with Building Permits and Housing Starts data from the US and Manufacturing sales data from Canada.
EUR/USD analysis for 19/.07/2017:
After yesterday's worse than expected ZEW Economic Sentiment data from Germany and the whole Eurozone, the price of EUR/USD has started a corrective cycle. The ZEW Economic Sentiment in Germany retreated from 18.6 points to 17.5 points and ZEW Current Situation data retreated from 88.0 points to 86.4 points. In the Eurozone Economic Sentiment has also decreased from 37.7 points to 35.6 points (retreat from 22-month highs seen the previous month). The good news is, that the ZEW Current Conditions index rose strongly to 28.7 points from 20.5 points previously with a significant increase in the number of respondents assessing conditions as good. This has been the strongest reading since January 2008. In conclusion, despite the pullback in ZEW figures, the economic confidence in the Eurozone growth outlook remains strong in the short term, especially with monetary policy still providing continuous support and a very firm reading for current expectations.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the h4 time frame. The market has made a new local high at the level of 1.1583 but currently is in the corrective cycle. The first target for this cycle is technical support at the level of 1.1489, but any breakout lower would directly expose the next technical support at the level of 1.1368. The overall market conditions are overbought in this time frame and there is a visible bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator. Better than expected data from the US house market might trigger another leg down in this pair.
Market Snapshot: Crude Oil trades in a range
The price of Crude Oil has bounced from the technical support at the level of $45.85 but was capped below the level of $46.88, so no new high was made. Market participants might be waiting for Crude Oil Inventories data from the US that are scheduled for release today at 02:30 pm GMT. Another increase in stockpile above the expected number -3,600k barrels might push the price below the support at the level of $45.85 and target the next technical support at the level of $45.00.
Market Snapshot: EUR/GBP retreats from the supply zone
After an impulsive rally towards the new local high at the level of 0.8898, the price of EUR/GBP reversed and fell below the supply zone between the levels of 0.8898 - 0.8861. The momentum oscillator is still above the fifty level, but it points to the downside. So if the support at the level of 0.8814 is breached, then the price is likely to fall even deeper towards the next technical support zone between the levels of 0.8754 - 0.8717.
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