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Trading plan for 16/08/2017:
No special or remarkable moves were noticed overnight. Variation of currencies does not exceed 0.1%. EUR/USD is trading around 1.1740, USD/JPY around 110.65 and GBP/USD 1.2865. Precious metals are trying to erase part of yesterday's losses. Crude Oil is up 0.5% after the API report (drop in inventories by 9.2 million barrels), although the increase in volume is clearly not the strongest. The mood of the Asian stock market mixed. Hang Seng comes out 0.7% over the line, the Shanghai Composite loses 0.3% and the Nikkei 225 oscillates around yesterday's closing price.
On Wednesday 16th of August, the event calendar is busy with important economic releases. During the London session, the UK will post Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate data. The Eurozone will present Revised GDP data. During the US session, Canada will post Foreign Securities Purchases and US will present Building Permits and Housing Starts data. Later in the session, the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released.
GBP/USD analysis for 16/08/2017:
The Average Earnings Index data, Unemployment Rate, and Claimant Count Change data are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and the market participants expect the Unemployment Rate to stay unchanged at the level of 4.5% and Claimant Count to increase slightly from 6.0k to 7.2k people. Yesterday's inflation data revealed, that CPI index was steady in July, which was surprising news for the global investors. This is why wages growth could be the key number in today's release. A softer pace of grow may renew concern that consumer spending will suffer in the months ahead. However, so far a good news is expected: analysts see the annual rate for average weekly earnings including bonuses holding steady at 1.8%. Any number better than expected will make British Pound rally in the short-term across the board.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market had bounced from the technical support at the level of 1.2845, but the overall bounce was very limited in range. The next important resistance is at the level of 1.2930 and only a V-shape reversal from current lows would put the bulls back in control over this market. Otherwise, the deterioration might increase and the next important technical support is seen at the level of 1.2793.
Market Snapshot: Crude Oil bounces after data
The price of Crude Oil had bounced from the golden channel support around the level of $47.02 and currently is trading in the middle of the range. There is still a chance for a possible break out above the resistance at the level of $48.18 as the oversold market conditions support this scenario. On the other hand, break out below the support at the level of $6.88 will open the road towards the next support at the level of $45.39.
Market Snapshot: USD/CAD back inside the channel
The price of USD/CAD got back to the blue channel zone and tested the resistance at the level of 1.2770. The market is still trading above the short-term golden trend line and any violation of this line would suggest further deterioration towards the technical support at the level of 1.2651 and below. On the other hand, the next technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2855.
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