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08.07.2022: Oil market recovery likely to continue. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB.
Visualizzazioni:
Having dropped to $100 per barrel, the oil market immediately began to recover. For now, the quotes have risen to $105. In general, the situation in the energy market remains unchanged. As before, the main driving force behind the asset’s growth is fears of a global energy crunch the world is likely to face this autumn.Thus, its recent drop from $125 to $100 can be seen as a pullback fueled by mild anxiety after hitting a ten-year high. Notably, something similar happened in March 2022. At that time, oil jumped from $90 to $125. Likewise, its steep rise was followed by a sharp pullback, but then the asset gained value. Moreover, the factors that contributed to its rally were exactly the same. Therefore, it can be assumed that oil prices will gradually return to the mark of $125 per barrel.
According to the four-hour trading chart, a decline in oil prices was limited by 97.50-100, the area of interaction between trading forces. As a result, the market faced a technical pullback, bouncing off the important level. The primary phase of the pullback may drag on and even cause a shift in market sentiment. If the price consolidates above 110, it will most likely head towards the levels of 115-120. At the same time, the downward cycle initiated in mid-June is still relevant in the market. Accordingly, the current pullback may well lead to a significant change in the volume of short and long positions. In this case, Brent crude may well make another attempt to break through the 97.50/100 area. Market participants are also focused on the minutes from the European Central Bank's latest meeting. The notes showed that the regulator would lift interest rates, albeit at a more modest pace than previously projected.
This news was enough for gold to stay firm in the area of $1,745 per ounce. Following this consolidation, the yellow metal is likely to continue its downward movement. In the short term, it may well slide to $1,700 per ounce.If the price fixes below $1,730, the volume of short positions will increase again. At the same time, the current pullback may turn into a correction in case the price consolidates above $1,750 on the four-hour chart.Meanwhile, the Russian currency seems to have stabilized in the range of 62 to 64 rubles per dollar. Nevertheless, the quote continues to periodically attempt to break through the lower boundary of the range. This indicates that the ruble still has upside potential. The Russian currency may be supported by a slowdown in inflation from 17.1% to 15.9%, which is an extremely positive factor in the current situation. However, this indicator will be released after the trading closes. Therefore, the market's response to the news will follow only on Monday. Until then, the ruble is expected to remain range-bound.
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