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EUR/USD – 1H.
During the last trading day, the EUR/USD pair performed a new reversal in favor of the European currency and resumed the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2238. Thus, the rebound of quotes from 1.2238 has not yet happened. Nevertheless, the pair could perform a reversal in favor of the US currency and start a new process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2166). The information background for the euro/dollar pair on Monday did not represent anything important. There was no report. There was no speech. But today, traders will be satisfied with the amount of information that is planned. The most interesting report of the day is inflation in the European Union. Let me remind you that recently, against the background of high rates of vaccination of the population in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as the recovery of economies in these countries, more and more investors and traders are afraid of high inflation in 2021. All central banks have provided some stimulus, so now that the economy has started to recover, the excess liquidity can lead to an increase in inflation. However, so far, inflation is a concern only in America, where it has already accelerated to 4.2% and may grow even stronger in May. But in the European Union, the consumer price index may accelerate in May to just 1.9%, which is not even the target value of the European Central Bank. Thus, inflation in the EU is also accelerating, but slower than in the US. The European economy is also recovering compared to the American one. Nevertheless, the inflation report may cause serious interest among traders, and therefore cause serious movements of the pair in the first half of Tuesday.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under the ascending trend line, and this already allows us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a new strong drop in the pair's quotes in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). There is also a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator, increasing the probability of a fall in the pair's quotes. Today's inflation report may contribute to this.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair closed above the level of 161.8% (1.2027), which still allows us to count on continued growth in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2356). However, a trend change is now emerging on the lower charts.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On May 31, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and America were empty, so there was no information on Monday.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (08-00 UTC).
EU - consumer price index (09:00 UTC).
EU - unemployment rate (09:00 UTC).
US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (13:45 UTC).
US - ISM manufacturing index (14:00 UTC).
On June 1, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States contain many interesting entries. Today, the information background can be quite strong.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which again showed an increase in the "bullish" mood among speculators. The category of "Non-commercial" traders again increased long contracts, which were opened in the number of 3,781. In addition, speculators also got rid of 1,442 short contracts. Thus, large traders show their desire to continue buying the European currency, leading to even greater growth. In addition, I note that the total number of contracts for the European currency continues to grow and during the reporting week increased by 29 thousand, which indicates an increase in the interest of traders.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair at a new close under the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2166 and 1.2117. I do not recommend buying the pair now, as there is a high probability of a change in the direction of the trend in the near future.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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