24.09.202521:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, gold is correcting from the new all-time high reached yesterday amid the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The dollar is recovering after a two-day decline following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who sought to temper expectations of rapid rate cuts, noting that the Fed must weigh the risks of high inflation and a weakening labor market when making monetary policy decisions. He emphasized that excessively sharp easing could leave the fight against inflation unfinished and would require subsequent course adjustments. These remarks supported the dollar after its drop from a weekly high and restrained the rise in precious metal prices.

Meanwhile, NATO issued a warning to Russia about using all necessary military and non-military measures for defense following repeated provocations and airspace violations over member states Estonia, Poland, and Romania. At the same time, Israel continues its operation in the Gaza Strip. The latest UN report states that the Israeli government intends to establish permanent control over Gaza and ensure a Jewish majority in the occupied West Bank, heightening concerns about a potential expansion of the conflict in the region. These geopolitical risks remain among the factors supporting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

For better trading opportunities, attention should turn to upcoming U.S. economic data, including final Q2 GDP figures and durable goods orders on Thursday, as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed's key inflation gauge — due Friday. These factors could significantly impact the trajectory of the dollar and the XAU/USD pair in the near term.

From a technical standpoint, the recent rapid rise in precious metal prices has ignored overbought signals, while the reemergence of buying interest during intraday pullbacks indicates that the short-term trend remains bullish. At the same time, yesterday's pullback before the round level of 3800 shows the first signs of weakening bullish momentum. In this context, subsequent selling has opened the way toward support in the 3710–3700 range. This support zone should serve as a strong foundation for the yellow metal; however, a firm break below it could lead to more substantial losses.

In the meantime, before counting on the continuation of the strong upward trend that has persisted for the past month, it is important to wait for a sustained breakout and consolidation above the round level of 3800.

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