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The euro is rising for the fourth consecutive day. The gap at 1.1741 is close to being filled, and slightly above it lies the key target level at 1.1779. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator's signal line is breaking into the territory of an uptrend. The current outlook appears optimistic, but correlated markets are signaling a possible reversal: yesterday, the S&P 500 declined by 0.63%, oil dropped by 1.48%, and the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasuries fell from 3.61% to 3.53%. If this trend continues, even at a slower pace, the euro is unlikely to reach 1.1908 (the upper boundary of the price channel).
Today, eurozone inflation data for September will be released. The forecast for the CPI is an increase from 2.0% y/y to 2.2% y/y. If this forecast proves accurate, the euro could reach the 1.1779 target within two to three days. However, if the price falls back below the MACD line (1.1660), the euro might become stuck in a sideways range—similar to the pattern observed in August ahead of the September Fed meeting. Now, markets look ahead to the next Federal Reserve meeting, which is just over a week away.
On the four-hour chart, the price continues rising above the indicator lines. The MACD line is beginning to curve upward, while the Marlin oscillator shows a downward bias. These mixed signals—especially on a Friday and on the day of a major CPI release—create ideal conditions for closing long positions.
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