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The market has ended up where it started. The week began with Donald Trump's tariff threats against Europe over Greenland and ended with a de?escalation. As a result, the S&P 500 rode the roller coaster, closed a second consecutive week with a tangible loss and is now eagerly awaiting earnings from the tech giants.
Weekly performance of the S&P 500
For 14 trading sessions, the small?cap Russell 2000 outperformed the S&P 500, but that winning streak ended by January 24. Strong consumer?sentiment data from the University of Michigan—up to a five?month high—did not help extend the run; the reading was another sign of US economic strength.
Investors were actively buying cyclicals tied to the economy, but ahead of the tech giants' earnings reports, they chose to pause the rotation. Weak performers catch up, leaders rest—that characterizes the late?January dynamics.
Performance of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks
For a long time the Magnificent Seven drove S&P 500 gains, but that has changed in recent months. Some of them have underperformed the broad index. Nevertheless, the tech giants continue to generate impressive profits, and investors, hoping for positive results, are turning their attention back to the group. They are buying the rumors—positive news for NVIDIA, for example, that Beijing has allowed Chinese companies, including Alibaba, to prepare paperwork to buy US chips, has become a catalyst.
If domestic rotation has been put on pause, external rotation is only just picking up speed. According to Bank of America citing EPFR Global, investors pulled $17 billion from US equity?focused ETFs. By contrast, ETFs focused on Europe and Japan were popular, and emerging?market ETFs outperformed all others: since the start of January they have attracted $134 billion and are headed for their best monthly inflows since the products launched in 2012.
This rather unexpected dynamic follows comments by Commerce Secretary Howard Latnick that Donald Trump considers globalization a failed policy that leaves America behind the rest of the world.
Uncertainty over White House policy could trigger a strike by foreign buyers of US stocks. European investors' holdings of US securities exceed $10 trillion; sell?offs by these holders could provoke a significant pullback in the broad stock index.
Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart formed two doji bars near fair value. That makes it reasonable to place two pending orders: a buy at 6,935 and a sell at 6,895.
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