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Japan's consumer inflation slowed in January from 2.1% to 1.6% year-on-year, the weakest result since March 2022. The core index fell from 2.4% to 2.0%, while the BoJ's preferred measure excluding both food and energy slowed from 2.9% to 2.6%. Inflation appears to be on a downward trajectory.
Bank of Japan official Takata reinforced a bullish view for the yen, saying the 2% inflation target is close and that further gradual rate hikes look justified. That is a clearer signal compared with the vaguer language the BoJ has used previously.
Takata was also fairly upbeat on Japan's economic outlook: he expects the global economy to show stronger growth, sees no risk of Japan slipping back into deflation, and judges the negative impact of higher US import tariffs to be limited.
However, recent reports cloud the picture. Mainichi reported on February 24 that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed concerns about further BoJ rate hikes during a meeting with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on February 16. The BoJ appears inclined to deliver at least one more rate increase, but wants to do so in coordination with the cabinet — and that coordination is not straightforward. That is unwelcome news for the yen, but it changes little for now since the next rate rise is expected in June or July, leaving time to reach an agreement.
A large macro data package is due late today, including the Tokyo price index as well as January industrial production and retail sales.
On positioning: a fresh net long in the yen has formed, amounting to 1.1 billion (weekly increase 2.6 billion) — the strongest result among major currencies. The implied price path is moving lower.
The yen still appears weak even against a soft dollar. USD/JPY nevertheless managed to stay below resistance at 157.66; the bullish impulse is being capped by fears of currency intervention. We expect demand for safe-haven assets to rise and concerns about Takaichi's exchange-rate stance to ease, which should allow the yen to start strengthening — albeit not strongly. The nearest target is a return to the 152.00–152.30 support zone; further downside will require clear signals from the cabinet and firmer expectations that the BoJ is ready to tighten policy.
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