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US President Donald Trump criticizes the board and methods of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. However, the normalization of monetary policy and steady GDP growth continue to support the national currency of the United States, while the wager of other Trump cards can lead to the closure of the maximum net long positions on the dollar since the beginning of last year.
Correction of indices makes investors extremely cautious about investing in shares issued in the United States. More frequent discussions about the fact that the rates on 10-year US bonds of 3.15% are too high. Barclays is expecting a return below 3% in the near term. As evidence, analysts cite September retail sales statistics and the stubborn reluctance of inflation to move far from the target mark of 2%.
At the same time, the budget deficit of 779 billion which has been the largest in six years and the growth of the negative balance of foreign trade put pressure on the "American". In 2018 figure, the first indicator increased from 3.5% to 3.9% of GDP. Note that the previous unemployment below 4% (in 2000), it was 2.3%. But when the unemployment rate was around 3.7% (in 1969), it was 0.3% of GDP.
One of the main factors for the rise of the dollar in April-October was the repatriation of capital against the background of tax reform, but its growth rates slowed down noticeably from $294.9 billion in the first quarter to $169.5 billion in the second. The effect of the fiscal stimulus is fading, which can cause a slowdown in the economic recovery in the country. It can also make adjustments to the policy of the Central Bank. There is one more circumstance that will probably add problems to the dollar which is the midterm elections in the USA.
Goldman Sachs Pro Dollar
The share of the dollar in reserves of world central banks fell to 62.3% in the second quarter. At the same time, investments in euros, yen, and yuan have increased, according to the IMF data for September. Analysts at Goldman believe that the policy of sanctions has hit the leading role of the dollar.
Restrictive measures and trade duties occupy an important place in Trump's international politics, such countries as China and Iran have experienced this. Goldman experts point to the threat that sanctions pose to the still dominant position of the dollar in the structure of world reserves.
Who intercepts the banner of primacy
The dollar loses its strength, growth, drops the banner of superiority. But is there any worthy who could intercept him?
The burden of political problems hangs on the euro as the currency is also aggravated by the inability of the region's economy to recover from a weak start this year, and not to mention, Italy as well.
Brussels is at the crossroads. If the European Union helps Italy which now has a budget deficit that exceeds the permissible levels of the region's authorities, experts are waiting for it to collapse. The fact is that other problem countries of the region, namely Spain and Greece, may insist on such decisions in their direction. In case of non-assistance, Italy may want to withdraw from the group. Where you do not look, everywhere there are problems.
Meanwhile, the European "bulls" are still fully counting on an increase in investor discontent with the dollar. But, without having our own Trumps, it is difficult to hope for a rise to the sky. In this regard, the assumption of maintaining the consolidation of the euro/dollar in the range of 1.145-1.18 looks sensible.
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