18.08.202507:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on August 18? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to during the day. We believe that after unsuccessful attempts to break through the trendline and key levels, the bears have little chance of success. The dollar remains fundamentally in a highly unfavorable position, and the de-escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine, along with the upcoming Federal Reserve key rate cut, will continue to push traders toward selling the U.S. currency.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Monday's fundamental events, only Donald Trump's meetings with the leaders of Ukraine and European countries can be highlighted, as they may bring Kyiv and Moscow closer to resolving the military conflict. We do not believe these negotiations will be simple, easy, or fast. Many more meetings will likely be needed beyond just one to discuss all ceasefire conditions and align on compromises. Nevertheless, this is a step in the right direction.

The trade war remains the top priority for traders. We continue to believe that any trade agreements that maintain tariffs are still a trade war, just "under a different guise." For the U.S., of course, deals like those concluded with the European Union or Japan are beneficial. Therefore, each new deal of this type could provoke growth in the U.S. dollar. However, globally and fundamentally, the market will keep in mind Trump's new trade architecture and protectionist policy. Under such a backdrop, the dollar is unlikely to show convincing growth.

Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to rise modestly. Both pairs corrected last Thursday but ran into key levels or support lines. Upward trends remain intact, and until they are broken, we see no reason to sell.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.