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Bitcoin completed a local flat and broke out into open space. As we warned, the new leg up began without warning or any major event. The market started buying "digital gold" again as part of another pump. The new rise was preceded only by two liquidity grabs to the upside on the 4-hour timeframe. On the daily timeframe, the downtrend structure appears broken, since the CHOCH (change-of-character) line was decisively breached. A correction may begin soon because the bearish FVG from the previous trend has been filled. At the same time, note the sideways channel the price left: despite a fairly solid close above the channel, this breakout could still be a simple deviation.
Yesterday it became known that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) resumed buying Bitcoin. A few months ago the corporate treasury giant abandoned a "buy always, with all spare cash, never sell" policy. The company's fate now literally depends on the BTC price: when Bitcoin is low or falling, Strategy's shares drop, free reserves shrink, and investor confidence falls; when Bitcoin rises, shares and reserves increase and investment capacity grows. Given Bitcoin's explosive rally in recent months, Strategy decided to resume purchases of "digital gold," something Michael Saylor had hinted at several times on social media.
Reports say the company bought about $142 million of Bitcoin, bringing its holdings to 847,666 coins. For now, while Bitcoin rises, all is well. However, the company's average purchase price is $75,500, so any significant pullback from current levels would seriously worsen its position and prospects. After six years of accumulating the top cryptocurrency, those investments are now modestly profitable. The company's thesis rests on continued, sustained explosive growth — an outcome we doubt.
On the daily timeframe, the downtrend structure is broken, so Bitcoin has likely begun forming a new bullish trend. The price has filled the bearish FVG from the prior trend, so we expect a downward correction. Note that recent rallies — including the mid-August move — show pump-like characteristics. The breakout above the sideways channel $60,000–82,500 could still be a deviation. A bullish FVG currently supports price in the $81,500–89,000 range, but so far there has been no clear reaction to that pattern. Bitcoin is increasingly approaching a correction.
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has left the bounds of the sideways channel. Four deviations were formed within that channel, the last two being bullish. Thus, traders could have worked the most recent move from the channel's lower boundary to its upper boundary, and now the flat can be considered complete. Of the nearby areas of interest, we can highlight only the last bullish FVG, but it has not reacted. A bearish FVG also formed, and we observed a reaction to it. We believe the decline will continue. The CHOCH (change-of-character) line lies at $75,000.
Bitcoin shows all the signs of a new bullish trend. This trend begins, as is typical, with a pump that has no single clear reason. The Federal Reserve has not started cutting rates, and the Clarity Act bill was not passed. In the near term, on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may decline, since the price has reacted to the bearish FVG. We also note that the current breakout above the sideways channel on the daily chart may be a deviation — yes, a deep deviation, but still a deviation. If so, Bitcoin could still fall back toward $57,500. On the 4-hour timeframe, both long and short positions can be considered locally, but the most recent relevant pattern is bearish.
CHOCH – change of trend structure.
Liquidity – liquidity, Stop Losses, pending orders that market-makers use to accumulate positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap. A price area of inefficiency. Price passes through these areas quickly, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.
IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, price doesn't react; it impulsively breaks it and then tests it from the other side.
OB – Order block. The candle where a market-maker opened a position aiming to take liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.
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