29.07.201406:51:00UTC+00Thai Economy Should See Much Stronger Growth in H2 2014

Quotes from Standard Chartered:

-The Thai business sentiment index for May rebounded to 48.6 from 44.3. The June economic confidence index came in at 75.1 versus 70.7, the second straight monthly increase and the highest reading since October 2013. The June merchandise trade surplus rose significantly to USD 1.79bn from May's USD 808mn deficit. 

-Encouragingly, exports also rebounded, growing 3.9% y/y in June. We expect Thailand's export growth to gain momentum in H2-2014 on the back of a stabilisation in China's economic growth and recovering rice exports. Tourism, which took a hit in H1 because of the political conflict, is showing signs of reviving.

-We maintain our real GDP growth forecast of 3.5% for full-year 2014, followed by 6.0% in 2015. These are substantially above market expectations. The economist consensus estimates for Thai growth in 2014 and 2015 are 1.60% and 4.00%,respectively, according to Bloomberg. The Thai economy contracted 0.6% in Q1, but we expect a sharp rebound in H2.