24.12.201415:16:00UTC+00Us Ism Index Likely to fall to Around 56.0 in Dec: Capital Economics

Quotes from Capital Economics:
- The US ISM manufacturing index has looked too optimistic for a while now. A fall this month would not be a sign that the outlook for industry has worsened significantly. It would simply bring the index down to a more realistic level.
- By edging down to 58.7 in Nov, the ISM index remained close to a three-year high and consistent with GDP growth of 4%. This looks a bit odd in the context of the weaker global backdrop and the continued rise of the dollar. Indeed, both the regional Philly Fed and Empire State activity indices fell in Dec, as well as the flash estimate of the Markit PMI. 
- We have pencilled in a fall in the ISM index to around 56.0 in Dec. This won't suggest that a major slowdown lies ahead. Indeed, the latest data show that manufacturing output growth has accelerated. But it would bring the index down to a more realistic level, consistent with GDP growth of around 3%.