12.12.201709:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for December 12, 2017

Dlouhodobá prognóza

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GBP/USD is currently quite bearish in nature having strong rejection of the bulls yesterday by bouncing off the weekend gap created in the market.

This week, both central banks in the UK and the US are holding policy meetings. The US Fed is widely expected to increase its funds rate to 1.50% from the previous value of 1.25%.

Next day, the Bnak of England is going to announce its policy decision, so the key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.50%. By the end of this week, a good amount of volatility is expected along with a directional bias of the market. This should be analized to track the upcoming direction in this pair. Today, the UK CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.0%, PPI Input report is expected to increase to 1.6% from the previous value of 1.0%, RPI report is expected to show a slight increase to 4.1% from the previous value of 4.0%, Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 2.7%, HPI report is expected to decrease to 5.2% from the previous value of 5.4%, and PPI Output is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%. On the USD side, today the US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, Core PPI report is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%, and NFIB Small Business Index report is expected to increase to 104.6 from the previous figure of 103.8. As for the current scenario, the pair is already quite volatile but with the upcoming high impact economic events and reports, the pair is expected to get a directional bias which is most likely to be on the USD side, taking the price much lower in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure off the dynamic level of 20 EMA above the support area of 1.33. The price is expected to break below 1.33 to reach the lower support area of 1.31 area in the coming days. The rate rike decision on Wednesday opens doors for the USD to gain more momentum. As the price remains below 1.35, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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