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The theme of trade tensions remains in the foreground, which on Monday assures the start in a "risk-off" climate. President Trump attacks Chinese companies wishing to invest in the US. In addition, the central bank of China cuts the reserve rate, and in Turkey, the current president Erdogan wins the election.
Risk aversion prevails in Monday's trade, as trade disputes persist on the first one. The financial media reports that President Trump plans to ban Chinese companies from investing in the US technology sector. He also wants to block the export of technology to China. The new regulations are to be announced by the end of the week. Markets still have Trump's Friday threats on the imposition of 20% duties on importing cars from EU. This is to be a response to the revenge duties imposed by the EU on EUR 2,8 billion worth from the US, including motorcycles, orange juice and Bourbon, in response to Trump's earlier import duties on steel and aluminum imports. USD/JPY is the main market that reacts to the weekend news, going down at 109.50. It also helps to reduce the yields on 10-year US bonds by 2bps to 2.87%. In addition, the USD is holding strong against other major currencies. In the tail there are risk currencies - AUD, NZD, NOK, SEK. EUR/USD is stable close to 1.1640.
In Turkey, President Erdogan won the election, securing another 5-year term in the first round. According to 97% of voters, the AKP + MHP coalition won almost 53% support. Lira is the strongest currency of emerging markets (2.2%) and USD/TRY falling to 4.57.
In China, the central bank made the expected reduction in the reserve requirement rate by 50 bp for some botos. The decision comes into force on May 5. Activities are to release about 700 million RMB of liquidity to support lending to smalland medium-sized enterprises. After the decision, yuan initially gained, but risk aversion reversed the trend.
On the stock market, the indices lose their value. Japanese Nikkei drops by 0.8%, and Chinese Shanghai Composite is down 0.5%.
Oil releases increases from Friday triggered by the decision of OPEC to increase mining at a smaller scale than was feared. Today, market sentiment is pushing profit and WTI is shifting 0.3% up to 68.3.
EUR/USD analysis for 25/06/2018:
Monday's macroeconomic data come from Germany and the USA. In the morning Germany will share the Ifo index value, which illustrates economic activity in Germany. Forecasts suggest results similar to those obtained in the previous month. Ifo Business Climate Index is expected to drop slightly from 102.2 to 101.9 points, Ifo Current Assessment is expected to drop from 106 to 105.6 points and IFO - Expectations are expected to slide from 98.5 to 98.0. No major turns are anticipated, but any increase in IFO data should give the Euro a lift across the board.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The bulls have managed to retrade 50% of the recent slide down and the local high was established at the level of 1.1679. Currently, the price is slowly moving towards the local support at the level of 1.1635. The momentum remains above its fifty level and the market conditions are now overbought, so a pullback lower towards the zone of 1.1616 - 1.1600 is expected before the bull will try again to rally higher. The key resistance zone is seen between the levels of 1.1829 - 1.1850.
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