19.11.201816:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for November 19, 2018

Dlouhodobá prognóza

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USD/JPY has been quite soft as it is losing momentum across the boad that lead the price to reside below 113.00 area with a daily close. Despite uncertain trading sentiment on USD, the greenback has been keeping momentum over JPY despite upbeat economic reports from Japan.

Today Japan's Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to -0.30T from the previous figure of -0.14T which was expected to be a -0.48T. Though Japan published better-than-expected data today, a deficit in the trade balance compared to the previous figure dealt a blow to the Japanese currency. Tomorrow BOJ Governor Kuroda is going to speak about the financial sector development and further monetary policy decisions. His speech is expected to be hawkish in nature leading to further sustainable gains on the JPY side.

On the USD side, despite the positive CPI and Retail Sales reports, USD has been struggling to keep momentum over JPY. As a result, JPY has been able to gain impulsive momentum. USD was hurt by the dovish comment of FED Vice Chair Richard Clarida who said that the central bank could revise its plans on monetary tightening amid concerns about a slowdown in the global economic growth. Today US NAHB Housing Market Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 67 from the previous figure of 68. Besides, FOMC Member Williams is going to speak. His speech is expected to be quite neutral with the modest impact on the currency. Moreover, tomorrow US Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.26M from the previous figure of 1.24M and Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.23M from the previous figure of 1.20M.

Meanwhile, USD is expected to gain certain momentum over JPY, but it is expected to be quite short-term while any positive hints from the BOJ Governor are expected to lead to further gains on the JPY side with better sustainability for the long term. Until the interest rate dilemma in USD is cleared up, USD is expected to be quite indecisive and weak against JPY in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bullish with the gains after the recent bearish pressure which indicates a retracement is in the progress. As the price pushes higher towards 113.00 area, it is expected to push lower towards 112.00 and lower in the coming days. As the price remains below 114.50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 110.50, 112.00

RESISTANCE: 113.00, 114.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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