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Despite another move lower towards 1.1250 and despite a new lower low, prices bounced back again confirming the support area around 1.1250-1.1280. I continue to expect price to bounce higher from current levels but as long as we trade below 1.15, bears remain in control.
Red line - major trend line resistance
Green line - support trend line
Black rectangles- bounce target areas.
EUR/USD has made three touches on the green support trend line and each time price bounced. Inability to reach the 38% Fibonacci retracement is a sign of weakness. However the diverging RSI also is a sigh that more sideways correction or a bounce towards 1.1350-1.14 should follow the downward move from 1.1510. Most probable target remains at 1.1340 and maybe towards 1.14. As long as price is below the red trend line resistance bears will remain in control of the medium-term trend. In the short term, I would prefer to wait for the bounce and short at any sign of rejection near my bounce targets.
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