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AUD/CAD has been quite impressive with the recent bullish momentum which lead the price to reside above 0.9230 area with a daily close with a higher target in the coming days.
During the week oil prices were falling which certainly contributed to strengthening of AUD against CAD despite mixed data on the Chinese economic growth. China's GDP increased by only 6.2% in line with forecasts. However, it was the weakest growth for the last 27 years. A decrease in AUD did not take long. It started after publication of the RBA minutes meeting. Last month, the Canadian dollar was actually in the flat range of 0.90713 - 0.91962, although the support and resistance lines are still to be broken. Both currencies are under pressure due to the trade conflict between China and the US.
The Canadian economy has been suffering from the global economic uncertainty for the last few months. The Consumer Price Index of Canada has decreased to -0.2% from previous value 0.4% on a monthly basis in June. It happened mostly due to lower energy prices. The headline inflation was unchanged at 1.8% while the core CPI has decreased from 2.3% to 2.1%. On a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, the CPI weakened to 0.1% in June following a 0.3% increase in May. Fundamentally, the Bank of Canada remains neutral, as its policy is mostly dependent on economic data. A strong month for industry-level GDP sealed the deal for the Canadian dollar at the end of the last month as the data provided an indication that the economic growth momentum was temporary. Then the jobs data highlighted a bullish backdrop for the economy.
Today, the Canadian core retail sales report was published with a decrease to -0.3% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to increase to 0.3%. The retail sales decreased to -0.1% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to increase to 0.3%.
At the same time, the recent Australian employment change report has been quite disappointing with a decline from 45.3K to 0.5K while the unemployment rate was steady at 5.2%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics showed 500K new jobs were added last month as a slump in part-time work overshadowed the 21,100 jumps in full-time employment. Overall, the employment change statistics put the market into indecision. The RBA has recently estimated that the jobless rate will need to fall to 4.5% to generate any wage pressures. In order to achieve that level, the bank chopped the interest rates twice since June to a record low of 1% as the economy grapples with subdued home prices and miserly consumer spending.
As of the current scenario, a drastic fall in retail sales along with the global economic recession indicates further weakness of CAD against AUD in the process. Despite the fact that CAD has been stronger against AUD so far this year, certain counter moves i.e. AUD gains are expected to pile up in the coming days.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
The price has managed to regain certain momentum while breaking above the corrective range resistance of 0.9230 area at a daily close. The price resided above the dynamic level of 20 EMA. Since the price is above the phase with a strong daily momentum, it indicates further upward pressure towards 0.9400 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 0.9200 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
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