01.07.202507:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: NZD/USD Has the Potential to Strengthen But Sensitive to US Data Today, Tuesday, July 1, 2025.

NZD/USD – Tuesday, 01 July 2025

Kiwi Today has the potential to strengthen due to pressure from the weakening USD (The Fed speech) supported by strengthening milk prices and the rebounding China Caixin Manufacturing PMI which could lift New Zealand's export expectations which will provide fresh air for the strengthening of NZD/USD today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 0.61282.

2. Resistance. 1 : 0.61114.

3. Pivot : 0.60814.

4. Support. 1 : 0.60646.

5. Support. 2 : 0.60346.

Tactical Scenario

Positive Reaction Zone: If the Kiwi price breaks through the Trendline (blue) then the NZD/USD movement is likely to rise towards the level of 0.61114.

Momentum Extension Bias: if the level is 0.61114. successfully broken and closed above it, then there is a potential for continuation to 0.61282 if volatility and momentum support.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

Upside bias weakens when the NZD/USD price penetrates and closes below the 0.60346 level.

Technical Summary

The EMA 50 condition is still above the EMA 100 (Golden Cross) and is above the PIVOT area level, the RSI (14) position is at the 52.50 level (Neutral Bullish) but it is necessary to pay attention to the appearance of Divergence between the Kiwi price movement and the RSI (14) but if the Trendline falls in the NZD/USD price movement and the RSI (14) is successfully broken, then it is likely that the strengthening momentum will hold back the rate of correction that will occur in the commodity currency pair.

Economic News Release Agenda:

1. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - 20:30 WIB.

2. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - 20:45 WIB.

3. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - 21:00 WIB.

4. ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - 21:00 WIB.

5. JOLTS - Job Openings (May) - 21:00 WIB.