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The result of the two-day meeting of the Fed confirmed the initial plan to reduce the bank's balance which accounts to 4.5 trillion dollars. In its resolution, the American regulator changed the previously proposed formulation about the decision to begin reducing the balance sooner or later. This allows the experts to believe that only after the September meeting, a significant decision will be made. It was assumed earlier that the announcement will be in September.
The market reacted actively to dollar sales not only on this statement, which provides an opportunity to make a move prior the September meeting but also on the tight binding of the expected rate increase by the end of this year. The statement about the bank to continue the close monitoring of the dynamics of inflation and further reaction regarding the increase of rates does not give the dollar a chance but led to its next fall.
On Wednesday, this wave was revised on some currency pairs where the dollar traded against major currencies to its local lows. The dollar index which reflects its dynamics to the basket of currencies led to a fall towards the minimum value from April 24, 2016, and overcoming this will change the indicator into a bearish phase.
Conforming with this circumstances, it can be assumed that the weakening of the US currency will continue with one level or another. Positive data from economic statistics, for example from the euro zone, Canada, and other economically developed countries, will push the dollar higher, respectively. It is likely that this process will occur before the meeting on September with the American regulator. Therefore, after a correction pending in the wake of a strong growth of major currencies against the dollar, one should expect the continuous weakening. In case that the incoming inflation data from the US will still not show an upward reversal, this will be another negative sale for the dollar.
Forecast of the day:
The EURUSD pair is trading above the 1.17615 level, which is the highs of May 2015. The price which is followed by a strong rally can be adjusted by means of overcoming this mark to 1.1665. But potential growth to 1.1800 is sufficient, either with or without correction.
The AUDUSD pair is above 0.8025, if it overcomes the wave of local overheating, there is a probability of its correction to 0.7950. But, most likely, it will continue towards the short-term upward trend at the 0.8165 level.
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