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Today, the important preliminary data on U.S. GDP for the second quarter is being analyzed. It is expected that the US economy made a sudden growth this quarter in growth to 2.6% from 1.4%. If this data is confirmed, it can positively affect the dollar exchange rate.
Recently, the dollar has been under pressure on the wave of two factors. The first was the confrontation between President D. Trump and his opponents with differences in political and ideological point-of-view regarding the American establishment, which actually put an end to his pre-election economic program. The second is the slowdown in the first half of the year of economic growth and more importantly, the inflation. It surged at the end of last year and at the beginning this year that contributed to the continued rate hikes. Although, market players are forced by the middle of the year that this could push the Fed to postpone its plan raise again this year's interest rates.
However, everything can change if the following data starting with GDP, the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy and, finally, the inflation figures begin to show strong values. this can change the trend of sentiment among market participants against the dollar from pessimistic to optimistic. This can be superimposed as it is strongly oversold in the technical aspect and will turn from a local correction into a real change of trend.
If the situation develops this way, it is possible for the US dollar to move up. At the same time, if economic data becomes worse than forecasts, this confirms the short-term decline and after some consolidation, the major currencies will resume the upward trends relatively.
In addition to the data on U.S. GDP, the figures on Canada's GDP and the outcome of the CBR meeting on monetary policy will be announced today. It is assumed that the regulator will leave the main interest rate at 9.0%. How will this affect the Russian ruble? It is difficult to say since there is a rather significant external negative factor in the form of new sectoral sanctions from the United States. Nevertheless, the prospect for ruble remains negative as a whole. Most likely, it will continue to decline.Forecast of the day:
If the U.S. GDP data is not worse than expected, the EUR/USD pair will consolidate above 1.1665 and the price will overcome the level of support 1.1665. There is a probability of its local decrease to 1.1600.
The AUD/USD pair is trading above the level of 0.7945.
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