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The new year 2018 began in the currency markets from the already traditional decline in the US dollar rate in the last New Year's Eve. Such dynamics, as we have already pointed out, is caused by a drop in trading volumes on the background of Christmas and New Year holidays due to a significant reduction in market players and their departure. This is often a good reason for activating short-term speculative deals.
However today, on the second trading day after the New Year, the situation began to change. The weakening of the dollar has stopped. And it is happening despite the fact that market volumes are still low. Such dynamics can be explained by the markets expecting the publication of important data on employment in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy, as well as the report on average hourly wages to be presented this Friday.
In our opinion, investors' attention will be focused on the figures on wages, which is due to the shift in the focus of the market towards the probability of the Fed continuing it's plan of raising interest rates this year. It is important to note that the US regulator has planned three increases in interest rates in the coming year, which are again questioned by some market players precisely because of the low growth in wages and inflationary pressures. It could also be due to the fact that the component of consumer inflation and the price index for personal Consumption (RFE) may never continue to rise. This is important for the regulator in assessing the decision on rates. And this, as many believe, can be the reason for the Fed's adjusting the number of rate hikes this year.
Today, the focus of the market will be the output of data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM for the month of December. It is assumed that the indicator will show a decrease in growth to 58.1 points against the November value of 58.2 points. Also, investors will carefully study the protocol of the December meeting of the Fed on monetary policy. It can be assumed that if it shows a weakening of the regulator's desire to continue an active rate hike, then we can expect further local weakness in the US dollar. However, if it shows a persistent stance towards a further increase in borrowing costs, the dollar will have every chance to turn up in relation to major currencies.
Forecast of the day:
The EURUSD pair stopped growing and amid strong signals from the Fed's published minutes of the meeting, it can continue the downward trend to 1.1995 with a break at 1.2040. This will correspond to 23% Fibonacci retracement.
The USDJPY pair can also turn up against the background of news from the United States. Overcoming the level of 112.40 may lead to a local growth of the pair to 113.00.
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