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The results of the ECB meeting showed that the regulator continues to try balanced out between the need to stop stimulating the European economy and the risks that could lead to a new wave of economic growth, which, in fact, is provided by these measures that have already been held for more than three years.
The bank resolution showed that it is planned to "keep rates at current levels much longer than net acquisitions of assets." In addition, it was reported that the quantitative easing program (QE) will remain at the level of 30 billion euros until September. Also, the regulator made it clear that he was ready to expand the stimulus measures, if necessary.
The market did not react in any way to the final document and continued to wait for Mario Draghi's speech, which was optimistic regarding the state of the European economy. This resulted in a local upward surge of the euro against the US dollar. But then, its growth stopped when the ECB President said that "the annual harmonized inflation of consumer prices in the coming months will fluctuate around the current level." And only Draghi's words about the unlikely an increase in interest rates this year has cooled the fervor of market participants. The euro fell sharply and made another attempt to continue its growth, but it failed to do so, this was followed by the large-scale profit-taking that started during the American trading session. Moreover, this led to a local decline of the pair below 1.2400, although the pair tried to gain a foothold above the ECB at the 1.2500 mark.
To summarize, it should be noted that despite the general soft tone of M. Draghi's speech, his words about the unlikely radical change in the monetary exchange rate can lead to the fact that after a sharp increase in major currencies against the US dollar at the beginning year can move to a sideways movement. The dollar received limited support on Thursday received due to the speech of US President Donald Trump in Davos. According to Trump, the strong US economy would mean a strong dollar. Of course, these are only words, but some of them made us think about the possibility that the Fed will allow the dollar to fall further down. It is possible that the current levels are well organized.
Forecast of the day:
As the EUR/USD pair reached the local maximum above the level of 1.2500, it started to form correction. This could become the basis for continuing the downward movement to 1.2300 in case the price falls below the level of 1.2400.
The USD/JPY pair increased on the back of the publication of the Central Bank of Japan's minutes of meeting, which revealed the desire to exercise caution in monetary policy and the absence of its radical change. On this wave along with the possible continuation of profit-taking, the pair could rise to 110.35 if it trades above 109.15.
* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.
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